Bonds, Interest Rates, and the Impact of Inflation Part 2 of 2

The markets pulled back Monday on what was just a technical sell off. As we have been saying for three or four weeks, the markets were extended and in need of a period of consolidation. Bonds pulled back a bit, but we remain bullish on convertible bonds and emerging market bonds. We feel these sectors of the bond market have a lot of room to run. Furthermore, sectors like the IEZ Oil services companies look like a nice place to add to positions.

We have all been reading and hearing about the automatic spending cuts of $ 85 billion in government spending that will take place on March 1st. We are hearing that government employees will be furloughed, flights delayed, criminals set free, and from Bill Murray, cats and dogs will start to live together. Talk about hyperbole! Even with the cuts, our Federal Government will spend 15 Billion more than it did last year and 30% more than in 2007. Government spending on defense is 19% higher, and will be 13% higher than in 2007. Scare tactics like this have totally gotten out of control. Here is our prediction: almost no one, and I mean just about no one, will even notice. We could reduce spending by another 300 billion and hardly anyone would notice.

Bonds, Interest Rates, and the Impact of Inflation Part 2 of 2

Why watch the Fed?
Inflation also affects interest rates. If you’ve heard a news commentator talk about the Federal Reserve Board raising or lowering interest rates, you may not have paid much attention unless you were about to buy a house or take out a loan. However, the Fed’s decisions on interest rates can also have an impact on the market value of your bonds.

The Fed takes an active role in trying to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control. When the Fed gets concerned that the rate of inflation is rising, it may decide to raise interest rates. Why? To try to slow the economy by making it more expensive to borrow money. For example, when interest rates on mortgages go up, fewer people can afford to buy homes. That tends to dampen the housing market, which in turn can affect the economy.

When the Fed raises its target interest rate, other interest rates and bond yields typically rise as well. That’s because bond issuers must pay a competitive interest rate to get people to buy their bonds. New bonds paying higher interest rates mean existing bonds with lower rates are less valuable. Prices of existing bonds fall.

That’s why bond prices can drop even though the economy may be growing. An overheated economy can lead to inflation, and investors begin to worry that the Fed may have to raise interest rates, which would hurt bond prices even though yields are higher.

Falling interest rates: good news, bad news
Just the opposite happens when interest rates are falling. When rates are dropping, bonds issued today will typically pay a lower interest rate than similar bonds issued when rates were higher. Those older bonds with higher yields become more valuable to investors, who are willing to pay a higher price to get that greater income stream. As a result, prices for existing bonds with higher interest rates tend to rise.

Example: Jane buys a newly issued 10-year corporate bond that has a 4% coupon rate–that is, its annual payments equal 4% of the bond’s principal. Three years later, she wants to sell the bond. However, interest rates have risen; corporate bonds being issued now are paying interest rates of 6%. As a result, investors won’t pay Jane as much for her bond, since they could buy a newer bond that would pay them more interest. If interest rates later begin to fall, the value of Jane’s bond would rise again–especially if interest rates fall below 4%.

When interest rates begin to drop, it’s often because the Fed believes the economy has begun to slow. That may or may not be good for bonds. The good news: Bond prices may go up. However, a slowing economy also increases the chance that some borrowers may default on their bonds. Also, when interest rates fall, some bond issuers may redeem existing debt and issue new bonds at a lower interest rate, just as you might refinance a mortgage. If you plan to reinvest any of your bond income, it may be a challenge to generate the same amount of income without adjusting your investment strategy.

All bond investments are not alike
Inflation and interest rate changes don’t affect all bonds equally. Under normal conditions, short-term interest rates may feel the effects of any Fed action almost immediately, but longer-term bonds likely will see the greatest price changes.

Also, a bond mutual fund may be affected somewhat differently than an individual bond. For example, a bond fund’s manager may be able to alter the fund’s holdings to minimize the impact of rate changes. Your financial professional may do something similar if you hold individual bonds.

Focus on your goals, not on interest rates alone
Though it’s useful to understand generally how bond prices are influenced by interest rates and inflation, it probably doesn’t make sense to obsess over what the Fed’s next decision will be. Interest rate cycles tend to occur over months and even years. Also, the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and bond prices is complex, and can be affected by factors other than the ones outlined here.

Your bond investments need to be tailored to your individual financial goals, and take into account your other investments. A financial professional can help you design your portfolio to accommodate changing economic circumstances.

Have a great week!
Vance

Portions provided by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2013.

Vance Howard began his professional money management career in 1992 with the formation of Chartered Financial Services, Inc., which was renamed Howard Capital Management, Inc. in 1999. Vance specializes in research, development, and implementation of various types of trading systems.

www.howardcm.com/
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